The Rise of China-Linked Crypto Scam Markets on Telegram: The Largest Illicit Marketplace in History

A decade ago, the dark web thrived on anonymity software like Tor and cryptocurrency, enabling untraceable black-market transactions worth billions of dollars for drugs, guns, and contraband. Today, this landscape has evolved: in 2025, the biggest online illicit markets no longer rely on hidden networks. Instead, they operate openly on Telegram, leveraging messaging platforms, Chinese-language proficiency, and persistent account-relaunch tactics to facilitate tens of billions of dollars in criminal activity annually.

According to a new analysis by Elliptic, a leading crypto-tracing firm, Chinese-speaking cryptocurrency scammers now dominate the largest online black markets in history—hosted on Telegram and operating in full public view. These platforms, including Tudou Guarantee and Xinbi Guarantee, process nearly $2 billion in monthly transactions, far exceeding the scale of historical dark-web markets like AlphaBay and Hydra.

The Scale of China-Linked Crypto Scam Markets

The "pig butchering" scam—a predatory tactic targeting victims via fake romantic or investment relationships—has become the world’s most lucrative cybercrime, netting $10 billion annually from U.S. victims alone, per the FBI. Scam hubs like Tudou Guarantee and Xinbi Guarantee monetize this industry by offering services such as money laundering, stolen data sales, fake investment platforms, AI deepfake tools, and even high-demand illicit services like pregnancy surrogacy and teen prostitution.

These Telegram-based markets dwarf historical dark-web platforms:

• AlphaBay, a peak dark-web drug and hacking tool marketplace, facilitated over $1 billion in transactions during its 2.5-year lifespan, a scale the FBI deemed "10 times larger than the original Silk Road."

• Hydra, a Russian dark-web market, processed over $5 billion in transactions across seven years, including laundering for cryptocurrency thieves and ransomware groups.

By contrast, Huione Guarantee (rebranded Haowang Guarantee in 2025), a Chinese-language Telegram marketplace, operated from 2021 to 2025 and facilitated a staggering $27 billion in transactions, according to Elliptic. Elliptic has termed it "the largest illicit online marketplace to have ever existed," even while operating openly on Telegram’s platform.

Telegram’s Ambiguous Response and Public Visibility

Despite multiple bans, the markets persist. In May 2025, Telegram finally banned Haowang Guarantee after the U.S. Treasury’s Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN) labeled it a money-laundering hub. Yet, Tudou Guarantee—which owns a stake in Haowang—and Xinbi Guarantee swiftly relaunched, with Tudou now processing $1.1 billion monthly and Xinbi $850 million monthly, totaling $27 billion in transactions alone (2021–2025).

Telegram defended its inaction by citing "user autonomy" against "capital controls," claiming Chinese users "seek alternative avenues for international fund transfers." However, this narrative has been rejected by analysts: the markets primarily facilitate criminal activity, including sex trafficking of minors (e.g., "lolita" or "young girl" ads on Xinbi) and forced labor in Southeast Asian compounds where "pig butchering" victims are exploited.

Enablers and Systemic Failures

Tether, the stablecoin widely used in these markets, also plays a critical role. Its centralized structure theoretically allows for fund seizure, yet it has rarely interfered with the massive flows it enables. Meanwhile, law enforcement has struggled to disrupt the ecosystem: Southeast Asian raids on scam compounds often fail to dismantle operations, which quickly rebuild.

Harvard Asia Center fellow Jacob Sims argues that "impunity across jurisdictions" and "minimal coordination" among governments and platforms perpetuate the crisis. Only global, terrorist-like coordinated efforts—targeting both criminal hubs and enablers like Telegram and Tether—could curb this.

Conclusion

The dominance of China-linked Telegram markets represents a new era of cybercrime: operating in plain sight, relying on user resilience, and outpacing all historical dark-web networks. As Tudou Guarantee and Xinbi Guarantee continue to scale, analysts warn that the lack of urgent, cross-border action will leave global victims exposed to unprecedented financial and human trafficking harm.

Elliptic, the FBI, and anti-scam advocates have called for stricter enforcement, noting that the scale of these markets—dwarfing even the Silk Road or Hydra—requires global collaboration to dismantle.

WIRED did not receive responses from Telegram or Tether by publication time.

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Key Figures and Metrics

• Tudou Guarantee / Xinbi Guarantee: $2 billion/month combined transactions (2025), with Tudou at $1.1B and Xinbi at $850M.

• Huione Guarantee (2021–2025): $27B total transactions (Elliptic).

• Historical benchmarks: AlphaBay ($1B+), Hydra ($5B+), Silk Road ($100M+ at peak).

• "Pig butchering" annual global losses: $10B (U.S. victims alone, FBI).

Sources: Elliptic analysis, FBI reports, Telegram statements, academic research on transnational crime.